Country Risk -- How to Create Scores
  • Country Risk Scores
    • SA Country Risk Scores (December 2016)
    • Risk Scores by Sector (December 2016)
    • "Heat Maps" of G-20+ Countries
    • Case Study: Brazil 2016
  • Traditional Country Risk
    • Economic Structure & Trends
    • Political Risk and Payment Performance
    • Global Environment
    • Capital Flows and Funding Risk
  • Build Your Own System
    • Selecting Variables
    • Countries and Data
    • Weighting Risks & Creating Scores
  • About US
    • Client Services
    • Contact Us

Selecting Variables


Structural Variables

Economic 
- Per capita Income
- Income Inequality
- Commodity dependence
    (% of exports, GDP, or tax
        revenues)
- Local currency as Reserve currency
- International banking center
IMF World Economic Outlook
​Political 
- 
Voice & Accountability
- Rule of Law
- Political Stability
- Control of Corruption
- Governmental Efficacy
- Regulatory Quality
world bank
​governance indicators
​Business Climate
-
  Index:  Ease of Doing Business
-  Components
world bank
​ ease of doing business

Sector Variables

Fiscal
- Budget balance
   (primary, overall, &
       cyclically adjusted)​
- Revenue & expenditure trends
- Public debt
   (% of GDP, % in fx / short-term)
IMF-tested VARIABLES
IMF DEBT "HEAT MAP"
​Banking & Financial
- Capital ratios
​   (simple & Risk-weighted)

- Leverage ratios
- Credit growth (% yoy & as % GDP)

- Non-performing loans
​   (% loans, and net of provisions
​       as % capital)
-  Liquidity risk
-  Asset prices and risk
macro-prudential data (BIS)
EFSB* banking variabiles
  * European Financial Stability Board
​External
- Trade (volume % and % of global
      total)

​- Current account (% GDP and
      trends)
- External financing sources

- FX reserves 

​- External debt (% of GDP, % short-
       term)
external imbalances
reserve adequacy

Macro Trend Variables

Growth
Real GDP, % change yoy 
Real GDP, % change, projected 
Positive or negative output gap
​
Inflation
CPI, annual % change

Interest & Exchange Rates
Domestic v. foreign interest rates
Real Effective Exchange Rate, REER

Unemployment
Unemployment rate (% labor force) 
IMF Article IV country Reviews
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  • Country Risk Scores
    • SA Country Risk Scores (December 2016)
    • Risk Scores by Sector (December 2016)
    • "Heat Maps" of G-20+ Countries
    • Case Study: Brazil 2016
  • Traditional Country Risk
    • Economic Structure & Trends
    • Political Risk and Payment Performance
    • Global Environment
    • Capital Flows and Funding Risk
  • Build Your Own System
    • Selecting Variables
    • Countries and Data
    • Weighting Risks & Creating Scores
  • About US
    • Client Services
    • Contact Us