Country Risk Scores is the website for Sovereign Analytics llc, an independent research and consulting firm. Sovereign Analytics are a team of experienced bankers and financial analysts who advise investment funds, multinationals, banks and governments on managing financial risk across the globe.
Drawing on 25 years of direct experience and applied research, the SA team created sophisticated models that forecast the European financial crisis in the late 2000's and the recent capital flows problems in Emerging Markets. We use these models to help corporate clients develop risk management strategies and to guide governments in improved debt financing strategies.
Our products include country and sector-specific Risk Models, sophisticated means for ancticipating shifts in capital flows, and Early Warning Systems of liquidity and funding crises.
Dr. Daniel McGovern, President of Sovereign Analytics llc, has over 30 years of experience in commercial and investment banking. He was head of country risk teams at First Chicago and Bank of America, Managing Director of Emerging Markets Research and Debt Capital Markets at Merrill Lynch, and Managing Director of Global Sovereign Ratings at Moody's Investor Services. He has served as an economic advisor and negotiator on more than a dozen sovereign debt restructurings (including Russia, Poland, Brazil, and Argentina.) He was Managing Director of the Sovereign Advisory Group at Merrill Lynch, and his past advisory clients include the central banks and goverments of Italy, Poland, Russia, Brazil, Egypt and South Africa. SA partners and collaborators include former bankers and financial analysts from Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, and UBS-Warburg.
• Leading Fortune 50 corporations (e.g. IBM)
• European and Middle East fund managers (e.g. Kuwait Investment Authority)
• German & European banks (e.g. Deutsche, DZ Bank, Merrill Lynch)
• Major governments and central banks (e.g. Italy, Brazil, Poland, Russian Federation.)
• Prevented $0.3 bn loss on Iceland investment in 2008
• Developed debt market strategy for Italy in 2011.
• Advised 12 governments in sovereign restructurings.
• Led credit rating process for Europe during crisis period of 2010/11
• Negotiated $0.7 bn debt agreement between KIA and Russia in 2002.
• "Different Windows on Sovereign Debt: Private Sector Credit from the 1980s to the Present" in Sovereign Debt: Origins, Crises, and Restructuring, edited by V. Aggarwal and B. Granville, Royal Institute of International Affairs: Chatham House
• Greece at the Precipice: US Clients, July 2015
• Liquidity & Funding as Keys to Country Risk,
New York, June 2015
• Politics and Funding Risk, July 2015 (USA & Bermuda)